Trump has pleaded not guilty in all four instances, calling them politically motivated. "I should not have to go through any fake prosecutions before the election," Trump tweeted Feb. 19.
A criminal conviction might hurt Trump's campaign. A quarter of Republicans and half of independents indicated they would not vote for Trump if convicted of a felony in Reuters/Ipsos polls.
If elected president again next January, he could end this case and Smith's second over Trump's handling of confidential documents or pardon himself for federal crimes. Republican strategist Ford O'Connell, who worked with Trump in 2020, said, "It's hard to overstate what a victory this is politically for the Trump legal team and for Donald Trump."
Former Obama-appointed senior federal prosecutor Barbara McQuade, a University of Michigan law professor, said the election subversion trial "is manageable as long as the Supreme Court acts promptly, and remains mindful of the public's right to a speedy trial."
If the Supreme Court rules in late June, UCLA School of Law elections specialist Richard Hasen said "it is not at all clear that there could be a trial before the election." "I'm also skeptical the judge would make Trump go to trial if he's the general election candidate on the Republican side," said Hasen. Hasen predicted the Supreme Court "is likely to reject Trump's immunity argument on the merits."
Delaying the trial provides Trump more time to rally supporters around his allegation that the accusations were politically motivated, which Reuters/Ipsos surveys show most Republican voters believe.
Some experts note Trump's lengthy history of using judicial delays for legal and political gain.
Hasen said "given the weakness of Trump's position, it's reasonable to ask whether this is simply an attempt, now more likely to be successful, to run out the clock."
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