Biodiesel and renewable diesel supply rose to 0.3 million b/d from 0.2 million in December 2022 and 0.16 million in December 2021.
Distillate stockpiles are far below the long-term average and are not recovering despite reduced usage.
A site-wide power outage at BP's Whiting refinery in Indiana disrupted fuel production, worsening the diesel scarcity.
On February 26, U.S. petroleum-derived distillate stockpiles were 15 million barrels (-11% or -0.93 standard deviations) below the ten-year seasonal average.
The gap increased from 11 million barrels (-8% or -0.77 standard deviations) at the end of 2023, according to weekly Energy Information Administration estimates.
Once manufacturing and freight activity picks up, distillate stockpiles will tighten, driving up fuel costs.
However, slack industrial activity and fuel consumption have extended the predicted timeframe beyond 2024 and lowered gasoline costs.
Ultra-low sulphur diesel supplied in May 2024 trades around $31 per barrel over U.S. crude, down from roughly $40 in early February.
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